Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise this year as Iranian oil sanctions will lead to a drop in oil supply.
Come December, India may have to re-evaluate purchases of Russian oil if a price cap on crude oil proposed by the US and the European Union (EU) comes into effect. That impacts nearly a quarter of India's oil purchases that come at a discount, helping limit marketing losses for India's state refiners and enabling New Delhi to manage inflation by freezing pump prices of motor fuels. In September, India imported 1 million barrels a day or 24 per cent of its overall imports from Russia, which became the biggest supplier of oil to India.
Petroleum Minister Murli Deora on Wednesday dismissed reports of diminishing oil stocks in Mumbai due to non-operation of ports after the oil spill off the coast of the metropolis.
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US Vice President JD Vance have expressed satisfaction with the progress made in negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement. The two leaders met in New Delhi and discussed a range of bilateral issues, including cooperation in energy, defense, strategic technologies, and other areas. They also exchanged views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
This sweet that uses edible gum and nuts is a winter favourite.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
India and the US have decided to hold sector-specific talks in the coming weeks to finalise the structure of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), the government said on Saturday. The engagement between the two countries came in the backdrop of the USA's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs on its key trading partners, including India, on April 2.
There is no payment problem for Russian crude, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday. He said there is no proposal to cut retail fuel prices at the moment. Addressing a press conference, the minister said India enjoys a buyers' position and foreign suppliers are approaching Indian companies with offers to sell oil.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Qwik Supply, the third largest donor to political parities using electoral bonds, bought Rs 410 crore bonds between 2021-22 and 2023-24, and gave all but Rs 25 crore to the BJP.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
A massive drone strike on the world's largest crude-processing facility operated by Saudi Arabia's Aramco has driven oil prices to their highest level in nearly four months. The attack has knocked out over half of Saudi Arabia's production as it cut 5.7 million barrels per day or over 5 per cent of the world's supply.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
The government will formulate a strategy to make India self-reliant in edible oils by boosting domestic output of oilseeds and launch a comprehensive programme to support dairy farmers, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced on Thursday. India imports a large quantity of edible oils to meet the domestic demand. During the 2022-23 marketing year (November-October), the country imported nearly 165 lakh tonnes of cooking oils, valuing a whopping Rs 1.38 lakh crore.
OPEC was in continuous talks with the World Energy Forum and the International Energy Agency to ensure market stability.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
Among the Sensex firms, Power Grid, ITC, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, IndusInd Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finance and Maruti were among the gainers.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) has since 2019 saved around Rs 5,700 crore in foreign exchange (forex) by locally manufacturing or sourcing more than 1,200 components, including battery packs for electric vehicles, said a senior executive of the automaker. The company's efforts for Aatmanirbhar Bharat, the government's campaign for domestic manufacturing, have resulted in a localisation rate of 92 percent in India, said Gopalakrishnan Chathapuram Sivaramakrishnan, whole-time director and chief manufacturing officer at HMIL.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
Rising prices of cereals and concerns over rice production in the 2023-2024 crop year due to insufficient rains followed by floods could be the possible causes.
A few years ago, when top officials of Indian state-run refiners went to Dubai to negotiate a crude oil supply contract, a senior official from state-owned Saudi Aramco told them, "We can negotiate on anything, but I am the last man standing for you. "Nobody can offer the range of crudes we do with certainty," an official who was part of the negotiating team recalls. Perhaps that explains why Saudi Arabia is less concerned about losing its place as India's premier oil supplier to an upstart like Russia, which emerged from nowhere to become India's biggest crude oil supplier in September and October.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
'Putin dreams about his legacy. He wants to forcibly restore the Russian empire.' 'Unfortunately, after three years of large-scale war with massive human losses, Putin will not budge from his goal because human life is the cheapest resource in the Russian State.'
Adani Group on Friday raised Rs 4,850 crore from the sale of 13.5 per cent of its stake in Fortune oil maker Adani Wilmar as part of a strategy to exit non-core activities to focus on main infrastructure business. The conglomerate, which last month announced its exit from Adani Wilmar by selling the bulk of its stake to a joint venture partner, had on Thursday announced sale of 17.54 crore shares (13.50 per cent equity) in the company on January 10 (to non-retail investors) and on January 13 (to retail investors) at a floor or minimum price of Rs 275 apiece.
Defying high court orders, oil PSU executives on Wednesday stopped work forcing stoppage of natural gas supplies to industries on the nation's main trunk pipeline but aviation services and fuel supplies continued to be normal.
Some of India's largest conglomerates are gearing up to either commission or commercially start the first phase of their new energy projects this year, according to company executives and analysts.
The impact of Trump's announcement of increasing import tariffs will have negligible benefit for India not because of companies trying to shift from China to other countries or their supply chains being affected due to their Chinese operations but because of our faulty policies, explains Mudit Jain.
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
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